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 Research Programs / Projects
Monitoring and Forecast of Long-Term Effects of the Power Industry Reform for the Household Sector
Head: Cand.Sc. L. Ovcharova
Duration: March 2005 – June 2005 ã.
Customers: State University - Higher School of Economics and RAO "Unified Energy System of Russia"
Support: R&D contract with the HSE
Project participants: Cand.Sc. Ye. Andreev, A. Burdyak, Cand.Sc. D. Ibragimova, A. Pishnyak, Cand.Sc. D. Popova
Partners: State University – Higher School of Economics, RAO "Unified Energy System of Russia", Institute of Urban Economics, Institute of Power Industry Policy, Institute for the Economy in Transition
Relation to previous projects
This project further develops the project “Russian Power Industry Restructuring: Consequences for the Household Sector”, implemented by the IISP for the HSE in September 2002 – April 2003 (1st stage) and May 2003 – May 2004 (1nd stage). The principal new element consists in the complex study of phenomena going on in the Russian economy, at macro- and microlevels, in the course of the power industry reform. Implementation of this project would allow executive officials of RAO "Unified Energy System of Russia" use the material while designing the restructuring of the company.
Objective of the project
Reform of the Russian power industry presents a central issue in the bulk of social and economic reforms
going on in the country.
Insofar as this infrastructural industry is connected with all other sectors of the economy, the success of this reform
would influence the development of market relations in the economy, increase its efficiency and competitiveness.
Otherwise, power industry would become a factor impeding the development of the economy and thus threatening national security.
The project seeks to identify and describe constraints and advantages of the implementation
of the given scenarios of power industry restructuring, analysis of probable social and economic problems and
effects of the reform for the period till 2020.
The project consists of the following major parts:
- Analysis of the long-term influence of alternative scenarios of the development of power industry on
households' incomes and expenditures, taking into account
trends of macroeconomic development, consequences of the housing and communal sector reform,
change of the number and composition of the population.
- Analysis of the influence of changes in the system of social protection of the population,
as envisaged by the Federal Law No. 122, on the level of households' income and scale of poverty.
- Development of scenarios seeking to compensate the losses in income caused by the power industry and
housing and communal sector reform to the population.
- Long-term forecast of power industry and housing and communal sector for the households' sector (till the year 2020).
Information base of the project
Modelling of social effects of the growth of
prices for power resources is based on:
- the NOBUS data (44 thousand households), conducted by the Federal Agency of State Statistics in the IInd quarter of 2003.
The research contains detailed information on the social and demographoc composition, incomes and expenditures of households,
size and quality of their housing, participation of the population in social programs;
- scenarions of changes (provided by the parters) of: (1) population's income;
(2) prices for power resources and housing and communla services for the household sector;
(3) index of consumer prices for goods and fee services.
Implementation and results
On July 5, 2005,
results of the research were presented by L. Ovtcharova at the workshop held by the RAO "Unified Energy System of Russia".
Final results of the project were approved by the customer.
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