<%Language="VBScript" Response.Write "" %>
<%Language="VBScript" Response.Write "print" %>

Research Programs / Projects

Russian Power Industry Restructuring: Consequences for the Household Sector

Head: Cand.Sc. L. Ovcharova

Duration: September 2002 - April 2003

Customers: State University - Higher School of Economics and RAO "Unified Energy System of Russia"

Support: R&D contract with the HSE

Project participants: Dr.Sc. A. Suvorov, Cand.Sc. Sinyavskaya, Cand.Sc. S. Surkov, A. Pishnyak, D. Popova

Partners: Institute of Urban Economics; Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting of the Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS, Economic Expert Group

Objective of the project is to evaluate the consequences of the growth of prices for electrical energy in the household sector and to propose a compensation scheme that would allow to transfer the population's rent from the low prices for communal and housing services to wages, pensions and social benefits.

Main results:

1. Six possible scenarios of the growth of prices for electrical energy were considered, and an estimation was made of the households' losses in each case. We modeled three macroeconomic scenarios (the conservative, the favorable, and the shock one) and, within each of them, two scenarios of the growth of prices for communal and housing services (with and without the compensation of the deferred inflation). The scenarios were simulated by our partners.



2. Four compensation models were developed:



• through the existing compensation mechanism: households, expenses for housing and communal services of which make more than 22% of their income, are provided a compensation through the system of housing subsidies;
• through an accelerated growth of wages, the abolishment of benefits for certain categories of the population, and housing subsidies. The growth of pensions is possible because of the increased tax payments to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation;
• through a moderate growth of wages, the abolishment of benefits for certain categories of the population, and the increase of monthly family allowances. The growth of pensions is possible because of the increased tax payments to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation;
• through a moderate growth of wages, the abolishment of benefits for certain categories of the population, and the increase of monthly family allowances. The growth of pensions is possible because of the increased tax payments to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation and transfers from the budget of the extended Government of the Russian Federation.
3. Risks of income losses for different social-demographic clusters of households have been determined for each of the scenarios.



4. The IISP continues the research within a new project: Monitoring and Forecasting of the Consequences of the Reform of the RAO 'Unified Energy System of Russia', aimed at the identification and description of the limitations and opportunities of the scenarios of the power industry reform; an analysis of possible social, economic and political problems and effects of the reform; working out a methodology of their monitoring and forecasting.